…not with the TNX giving the middle finger to Ben Bernanke. It’s only a matter of time before the equity market figures out that:

1. Homes just became that much more unaffordable.
2. Borrowing costs are going up.
3. The entire situation is now completely out of the Federal Reserve’s control. The Fed is now irrelevant.

The megaphone pattern is a common reversal pattern but my personal bias on the TNX is that this pattern is not actually valid.  I would say, however, that the TNX seems to be a bit over-extended.  If the TNX continues higher, it will be proof that the Federal Reserve is no longer relevant.  Ben can say whatever he wants, but the bond market will ultimately force his hand.

Expect resistance at 44.  I think what we’re seeing here is a race between two things:

1.  Global inflationary pressures / US gov’t taking on to much debt / reluctance by foreigners to buy more US debt.

2.  A deflationary credit collapse.

The 40 level has been reclaimed. First attempt over the 200 MA didn’t hold but it looks like it might actually hold this time. Continuation pattern suggests a move to 43. Double bottom is telling.