Vdsat Charts » XLF

Crap you pull after you make mistakes

Stubborn Bear — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:29:15 +0000

I am still a little pissed about selling my XLF puts and missing a fat move down. On a fat move down on the XLF, you just can’t short it. There’s too big of a risk of a bounce. So instead of buying back puts on XLF, I decided to buy a IYR July 63 put for $2.25. IYR is the ETF for commercial real estate. IYR doesn’t have as much falling potential as IWM and QQQQ (measured by distance from here to prior low) but at least it’s falling as opposed to IWM and QQQQ which are slowly rolling over and about to break down hard (both need to be down a few more cents to confirm). I kind of want to diverify my short setups.

Btw, I got rid of lame XLF July 23 call for $0.45. I have no faith in owning that option as my insurance policy against a bounce.

Going the wrong way

Stubborn Bear — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 04:27:17 +0000

This ranks as the 2nd worst instance this year of me missing out of a big fat move because I sold too early. On top of that, in my disbelief, I decided to play on the long side and got screwed by doing that as well.

This is precisely why I am a stubborn bear. Missing out on a big move down feels far worse than being short and being wrong.

For kicks and giggles

Stubborn Bear — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 23:34:19 +0000

I went long one XLF July 23 call for 78 cents. Yes, that’s right, it’s a call and not a put.

Tossed the hot potato too soon

Stubborn Bear — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 04:54:49 +0000

Bah.

I am not a pig

Stubborn Bear — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:37:11 +0000

I do not feel comfortable shorting XLF over $23.40 or so I dumped my XLF July 26 and 27 puts that I rolled not too long ago for a slim profit. I got a fat move down already so there’s no reason to complain. It may be a bad move, but no one ever went broke by taking profits, and I have to reduce my short exposure this week because this week is options expiration week and stupid things happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see XLF go to $25 by the end of the week, but I wouldn’t take that bet by going long. I’m already short enough via IWM and QQQQ puts.

I had to sell some of my XLF puts

Stubborn Bear — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 03:59:38 +0000

On a move like this, you just have to take your short position down. You’d be a fool not to at least trim some of it. I dumped a XLF June 29 put this morning. I’ve been burned too many times by not trimming my short position when it was time to do so. Many times, you don’t have time to get out of a short position before it’s too late. Stuff can gap up on you like XLF did on March 18th.